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Kassioun Editorial 1202: How Will the Conflict Proceed?
Even before Trump moves into the White House, the general features of the amendments that will be introduced to American strategy within the ongoing Western struggle against the birth of a new world, and to hold on to the crumbling hegemony and unipolarity, are gradually crystallizing.
Among these main features, the following can be noted:
First: The conflict will continue in various arenas. In some arenas, it will take new forms, and its intensity may decrease in some places and intensify in others. However, its overall outcome will be higher degrees of escalation of hybrid warfare in its various forms.
Second: In the economic framework, there will be a major review of the sanctions policy, which has accomplished part of its tasks. However, at the same time it has entered a phase in which its negative results on the US dollar are greater than its positive ones. Additionally, continuing with the same policy has become an incentivizing and accelerating factor of historical processes through which the dollar is being dethroned, including the gradual processes carried out by BRICS. Trump expressed this danger clearly by saying that the loss of the dollar as a global currency means “the US becoming a third world country”. The sanctions will be replaced by a set of economic protectionist measures and raising tariffs in a manner that looks like the trade war that Trump started in his previous term, but to a higher and more severe degree, especially towards China.
Third: There will be a new attempt to evoke Kissinger’s spirit by trying to separate China and Russia, but in reverse this time. That is, by enticing Russia against China through an agreement with it on Ukraine, with some temptations regarding lifting sanctions and others, in parallel with continuing to work on comprehensive hybrid chaos within Russia itself, and in reliance on the fifth column, which sees in reaching with the Americans a deal that would allow its supposed entry into the “imperialist club” the pinnacle of its dreams.
Fourth: In our region, after the ongoing aggression on Gaza and Lebanon has accomplished the task of raising the temperature of the region as a whole and putting it on a hot plate whose function is to prepare the appropriate conditions for the spread of comprehensive hybrid chaos, it is likely that some forms of ceasefire will be reached – especially with the accumulation of attrition on the Zionist front – to replace the current fire a wider and more destructive fire. The source of the latter is internal contradictions, the work on the detonation of which will be intensified in our entire region, including in Syria, Turkey, Lebanon, Iraq, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia. That is, the “peace” that Trump presents himself as carrying will be practically translated into pushing towards major internal fires on nationalist bases primarily, and sectarian and religious bases secondarily.
In this context, the utmost importance of the historic settlement being worked on in Turkey becomes clear, through an agreement being worked on between Abdullah Ocalan on the one hand, and the Turkish authorities on the other. This agreement, if completed, would defuse a massive explosion that may be the most dangerous at this moment in our entire region. In addition, the current international and regional situation is, as described by multiple sides, a historic opportunity that has not come in a hundred years to achieve a just democratic solution to the Kurdish issue, starting in Turkey (where the geographical and demographic center of this issue is), and then in the entire region, based on brotherhood of peoples and consensus among them.
In parallel, defusing the fuses of the explosion requires proceeding to the end on the issue of the Syrian-Turkish settlement under the auspices of Astana, and neutralizing all obstacles in its face. This is because, in essence it will be a fundamental key, not only to confront the accumulated Zionist sabotage in the entire region, but also to fully implement the political solution based on UNSC Resolution 2254 with all its components, which leads to restoring the unity of Syria, land and people, and towards the exit of foreign forces therefrom, and reaching a state of actual stability based on the right of the Syrian people to self-determination, with all the dimensions of this destiny, including the nature of the political and socioeconomic system that they want.
