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Kassioun Editorial 1091: An Ominous Omen of a New Wave of Sweeping
After several months of relative stability of the exchange rate of the Syrian pound, the rate began to decline over the past few weeks to reach nearly 5000 Syrian pounds to the dollar.
The temporary stabilization of the previous rate was the result of fiscal and monetary policies, including attempts to control the Syrian pound money supply. It was not the result of increasing the total volume of goods, i.e., increasing production, nor by moving away from the dollar and relying on a set of other currencies. It was clear that this stability would not last long, especially with the US Federal Reserve’s measures regarding the interest rate, which put all the countries that are economically dependent on the dollar, including Syria, in position of being much more likely plundered.
What is serious about the issue is that the new decline in the value of the Syrian pound, and as proven by previous incidents of decline in the value, is that it is always an ominous omen of the next stage of collapse. This collapse primarily affects the ability of the vast majority of Syrians to secure the minimum conditions for survival. Additionally, this new decline comes within the context of a global crisis, with which the ability of Syrians abroad to transfer money to their families, which to begin with was very modest but used to keep a lot of Syrians inside just above the point of death from starvation, and now that has shrunk further. That is in addition to the continuous rise in prices in Syria, which with everything else has reduced the purchasing power of those transfers.
Today, according to Kassioun’s quarterly index, the minimum standard of living today is about 2.2 million Syrian pounds per month for a family of five (about 450 dollars), while the minimum wage is still around 93,000 Syrian pounds per month (or about 19 dollars).
If the exchange rate is just one of many indicators of what is to come, the most indicative indicator is the brutal acceleration in the processes of lifting subsidies, which has been taking place over the past months. The most brutal of those lifted subsidies are especially those related to agriculture and industry, through things like fertilizers, electricity, and other production requirements. These processes will lead to an astronomical decline that is currently difficult to estimate in the upcoming agricultural seasons, as well as whatever remains of industrial production, which in turn will lead to a new cycle of inflation, high prices, and lower standards of living.
Among the clear outcomes of all this devastation that is lurking months and weeks away, is that a new wave of migration will take off. This means that a large additional step will be taken in the process of sweeping more Syrian people out of their homeland.
Stopping the destructive vicious cycle that the country is experiencing is a matter of national security, and a matter of preserving its existence, its survival, and the survival of its people. This cannot happen in light of the blatant and clear dominance of the warlords, the big corrupt figures, and the extremists. This necessarily requires a radical comprehensive change through a political solution according to UNSC Resolution 2254, starting as soon as possible with direct negotiations to form a transitional governing body, then the constitution, and then elections.
