The UAE Bubble is about to be “Deflated”
Saad Saeb Saad Saeb

The UAE Bubble is about to be “Deflated”

Over the last ten years – that is, in conjunction with the major conflict situations, popular movements, and chaos that prevailed throughout the Arab world and the surrounding region – the UAE has played roles far greater than its actual weight, whether economic, demographic, or geographical.

On top of the clear roles played by the UAE, is its role as an advertising agent and representative for the Zionist entity, especially after it signed the disgraceful “Abraham” Accords, to which the extremists in Syria choose to turn a blind eye amid the plethora of flattery that fills the screens in hopes of getting some crumbs thrown to them.

The most recent role, appearing on the surface now, is UAE’s entry into the current conflict in Sudan by supporting one of the two military sides to the conflict, which is the Rapid Support Forces. This is in addition to roles in Ethiopia, Morocco, and other countries.

The State of No Weight

The UAE has been active over the past ten years based on three main factors:

First: Extensive coordination with the US and the Zionist entity, both of which ensured that UAE’s role was exaggerated as a reward for its insolence in promoting the “Deal of the Century”, and as a tool for enforcing this deal at the same time.

Second: The state of weightlessness of the major regional powers during these years, resulting chaos and internal economic problems on the one hand, and more importantly, as a result of everyone fighting against everyone prevailing in the entire region – where relations are bad between Saudi Arabia and Iran, between Saudi Arabia and Turkey, and even to some extent between Saudi Arabia and Egypt, and bad between Egypt and Turkey, and between Egypt and Iran, etc. – has allowed a small force of the weight of UAE to play roles much larger than its true size.

Third: The accumulated solvency from oil revenues, and the accompanying media and propaganda extravagance, is no less, by the way, than what Qatar has worked and is working on through Al Jazeera and similar “Azmi institutions”.

A New Situation

Over the last year, in particular, the retreat of the American weight and influence globally and in our region has become clearer and more tangible. That has directly affected the Zionist entity, as it has affected and will affect the UAE more with time.

In parallel, the set of regional understandings, settlements, and reconciliations that took place through Chinese and Russian mediation, have begun to annul the previous zero-sum outcome of the major regional powers. Moreover, they have begun to accumulate a positive sum that goes exactly against American interest, and implicitly against Zionist interest.

That is, the set of settlements among Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Iran, and Egypt, in parallel with growing trends of getting liberated from American dependence, put players who try to exploit contradictions, work within the margins, and benefit from conflicts, in a weak position. At the same time, contradictions between the minor players and the main regional players have become clearer and more intense.

Here is a brief look at a number of crises in which the UAE is currently involved:

  •  Yemen: Despite the formal alliance between the UAE and Saudi Arabia within the “Arab Alliance”, things on the ground were completely different. The UAE was supporting a certain faction in southern Yemen, whose contradictions at certain stages of the war with the Saudi-backed faction reached a higher level than the contradictions of the two factions with the Houthis (the third faction). It was clear that the UAE was seeking to divide Yemen, at a time when Saudi Arabia saw this matter as a direct threat to its national security, by opening the door to division on its already-disputed borders with Yemen.

  •  Syria: The UAE is trying to play unilateral roles by coordinating with the West – sometimes under the table and sometimes above; is trying to present itself as the leader of the Arab effort for Syria, while its weight does not allow this, not to mention that this “leadership” is not within an agreed-upon Arab plan (perhaps with the exception of Jordan and Morocco), but rather for a scheme agreed upon with the West – like “changing the regime’s behavior”, “step for step”, and so on.

  •  Sudan: The UAE clashes directly with Egyptian interests, as it does in the Nahda Dam file.

  •  Algeria-Morocco: In that dispute, the UAE takes the side of its partner in normalization with the Zionists: Morocco. The UAE employs its media to work against Algeria on a daily basis and using various means.

  •  Other regional countries: UAE’s relations with both Iran and Turkey are not in a better condition. For example, during the past eight months that witnessed massive protesting movements in Iran, the most important Iranian tweeters and celebrities with opposition activity of the type associated with Western institutions were mainly launching their activities from Dubai in particular.

Relationship with Russia

The UAE is being portrayed as a financial outlet through which Russia connects with the world after Western sanctions against it. This may be partially true, but two issues should be noted when considering it:

First: There are major exaggerations when it comes to talking about the size of this outlet, not to mention sometimes exaggerating by implying that it is the only one. Russia has many other outlets in the financial, commercial, and economic sense, the most important of which are: China, India, and even Turkey and others.

Second: Is it not possible that this “Emirati” window is deliberately left as a back door? More clearly, it is no secret that one of the most important scenarios that Washington is working on against Russia, and perhaps the only scenario that has some chance of success, is that of striking Russia from within, specifically by Russian oligarchs, who are now parading around the UAE and moving their money across it.


As the evident contradiction between the UAE and the major regional countries increases, and as the Americans and Zionists further retreat in the region, the UAE will before too long be facing a scenario of its exaggerated bubble getting deflated. UAE’s national interest may be to deflate itself gradually so it can play roles commensurate with its true size. While this scenario remains possible, its realization seems difficult, especially since whoever gets involved with the Zionists faces great difficulty in getting out of their swamp.

(النسخة العربية)

Last modified on Monday, 01 May 2023 16:27