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Kassioun Editorial 1163: They Do Not Want a Solution!
Kassioun’s last editorial took an initial look at the US bill titled the “Assad Regime Anti-Normalization Act”, which passed in the US House of Representatives on February 14th, with completion of the process of its enactment requiring the Senate’s approval and then the US President’s ratification, a process that is expected to be completed before the end of 2024.
What should be noted with regard to this bill, and away from the usual media coverage model within which it is promoted, is that it stipulates the tightening of sanctions pursuant to the Caesar Act and extending them until the end of 2032, where the Caesar Act was set to expire, according to its text, in June 2025.
What is important in this new bill is that it clearly exposes the nature of US strategy on Syria for the next 5-7 years, which can be summarized by the following:
First: As long as the US objectives are not achieved in Syria, the sanctions will remain and expand, forever.
Second: This does not mean that achieving US objectives – if they are achieved – will necessarily mean lifting the sanctions. Rather, historical experience says exactly the opposite. The Iraqi example illustrates that it makes no difference to the US which regime is in power. US sanctions today, 21 years after the occupation of Iraq, are more severe than they were before its occupation. The US bullying in forcing buyers of Iraqi oil to transfer their funds to the US Federal Reserve, not to Iraq is just one example of the nature of the current sanctions on Iraq.
Third: The overall US behavior, including the sanctions and the new bill, is the stick that matches the “step for step” carrot. However, the reality is that assuming that sanctions will be lifted during or even after the implementation of the “step for step” project is a naive assumption contradicted by historical facts on the one hand, and the current facts on the other. The US, with the decline of its global hegemony, no longer possesses any tools of control and dominance, except for sanctions and comprehensive hybrid chaos with its various tools. Stability in our region does not serve the US in any way, and therefore any mirage with which it tempts the Syrian extremists leads towards further weakening of the country and its people, including weaknesses of the extremists themselves.
Finally: By pushing this new bill, the US confirms that it is not concerned with resolving the Syrian crisis, but rather with its continuation. It also confirms that sanctions are not only a tool for “behavior change”, but they are precisely a tool for changing behavior in a way that serves the continuation and deepening of the crisis, by preserving and reinforcing the part of behavior that prevents getting out of the crisis, and by sliding into new and more dangerous positions in the regional and international alignment sense, in a way that serves deepening the chaos and weakening all Syrian sides even further.
Each new day of the Syrian crisis, with the great pains it brings, confirms more and more that the West – particularly the US – does not want to solve the crisis. Instead, it is working to deepen it, and implicitly working against the implementation of UNSC Resolution 2254, regardless of the statements it makes.
At the same time, each new day confirms that solving the crisis is no longer possible except without the US and in spite of it. This will be through patriotic Syrian work that the initiative in activating the right of the Syrian people to self-determination, by benefiting from the meeting of the interests of the sides served by Syria’s stability and ending its crisis. At the forefront of those is the Astana tripartite, in cooperation with China and the main Arab countries.
