Kassioun Editorial 1093: Defusing Any Potential Explosion

Kassioun Editorial 1093: Defusing Any Potential Explosion

For weeks, northwestern Syria has been experiencing a high security and military unrest, especially with the latest invasions by the terrorist al-Nusra organization. This in no way means that things were stable before, as there are always tensions, albeit at varying levels from time to time.

In parallel, the Syrian south had also been experiencing a continuous state of security unrest for years. Although the tension is not widespread and is not making headlines, nevertheless it has been continuous and nonstop.

The same goes for the northeast, where targeting and internal security unrest have not stopped, though possibilities of a new Turkish invasion decreased to a large extent.

In the rest of Syria there is a very fragile stability, the gaps of which are filled by the different work and black-market trade of warlords.

In the entirety of Syria, in parallel with the turbulent security situation in general, albeit it varies among its different regions, everyone shares the quickly deteriorating living conditions. At the same time, the attrition of the country continues, as does the process of sweeping Syrians out of their country due to all these factors combined.

It could be said that the military operations in their broader form, and in connection with the Astana track efforts, have ended since nearly 2019, i.e., nearly three years ago. Since then, the center of gravity of Syria’s attrition and destruction has shifted to the economic side, which has witnessed over those three years the worst and fastest deterioration during the crisis. This was due to Western sanctions and blockade on the one hand, and the synergy between the sanctions and the vicious liberal policies as well as the interests of the warlords in the various parts of Syria. This also clearly means that the different efforts and achievements by Astana, will be in jeopardy if they are not completed by immediately starting a political solution.

While the general assessment about the shift of the center of gravity of attrition from military/security to economic is correct, this in no way means that attrition in its military-security forms has completely stopped, or that it is not on the agenda of the forces and sides benefiting from the country’s destruction.

Furthermore, that three years have passed since the widespread military and security operations have ended without actually engaging in a political solution, has proven that with each additional day of delay means higher probabilities of going back to the big security and military unrest. This is especially so since the process of eliminating terrorism in Syria has not been completed yet. Completing this process and fully eradicating terrorism has become organically linked to a political solution according to UNSC Resolution 2254, which represents the only way to reunify Syria and Syrians, as well as expelling all foreign forces.

The escalating tension indicators that are all over Syria are dangerous and should not in any way be tolerated, ignored, nor underestimated. These indicators combined with the continued human and economic bleeding in Syria as a whole, will not be confined to a limited tension if things continue this way. This could threaten to destroy all that has been achieved thus far, including any ceasefire or progress in eliminating ISIS and its likes.

Moving towards a comprehensive political solution based on the full implementation of UNSC Resolution 2254 was never a luxury and it still is not; it is the only antidote and only way to defuse very dangerous possibilities, among which is the renewed explosion of things all over Syria. An explosion of things in circumstances like those experienced by Syria today, especially the socioeconomic aspect, will be immeasurably more dangerous than it has ever been over the last ten years or so.

(النسخة العربية)