How to Accelerate American Withdrawal?
Kassioun's previous editorial entitled "Higher Escalation for Faster Withdrawal", saw in the assassination of Soleimani an American act aimed at preparing the ground for a faster withdrawal from the region, covered with a torrent of escalation. Just hours after the issuance of issue no. 947 of our newspaper, events began to confirm the validity of this conclusion, starting with the decision of the Iraqi parliament and the "American draft message to Iraq", up to Trump's statements himself (and beyond) in his last interview with the American right-wing channel Fox News in which he clearly expressed his “no objection” and even his “desire” to get out of Iraq, Syria and the Middle East as a whole.
Despite the uniqueness of the recent escalation in terms of its degree, intensity and seriousness, so that it seemed like the last step before igniting a large-scale war, looking at it now – after precipitation of the dense granules that were raised in the atmosphere of the region and the world alike – opens the door to reinforce the viewpoint that sees in the highest escalation a means to the fastest withdrawal. This even brings back to the immediate memory a series of similar events and American actions that allow generalization of this reading...
In this context, it is possible to recall two similar events: the American bombing of the Al-Shaerat airport in Syria, after which Trump announced his intention to withdraw from Syria; as well as the escalations around the shipping lines, starting with the capture of Grace 1 and up to Trump's declaration that he is not concerned with the protection of navigation in the Gulf, and is not concerned with the protection of oil traffic through it, and that the stakeholders have to pay and be present in the region with their own fleets. As for Trump, he is getting out of the region, and there will be no US fleets or forces except in the form of a "paid protection company", not in a framework of a long-term strategic presence.
Looking at the repeated scenario, at least three times as shown above, reaffirms the objective strategic direction in which Washington is moving towards an accelerated recession inward, and toward exit from our region, which has so far been manifested in the form of partial withdrawals and repositioning of the forces.
Nevertheless, attention should be paid to the fact that, whether for Trump who wants to make inward recession of USA, or for his internal opponents who reject this recession, the recession process itself is subject to a strict and realistic criterion of the balance between profits and losses; the more expensive the American stay, the faster the withdrawal, and vice versa. In addition, the US repositioning process which is being implemented by Trump, and for those who closely monitor it, are actually aimed at concentrating on the most fragile and most susceptible issues of prolonging conflicts and crises, including trying to play again with the Kurdish issue.
The acceleration of solving the crises of the whole region, and Syria in particular, has only one way: the acceleration of getting USA out, and this will not be done in a successful and complete manner except by taking a sincere and real steps towards a comprehensive political solution on the basis of the full implementation of the UNSC Resolution 2254, the actual (not verbal) stance toward which has become the intensive expression of the credibility of the patriotic position of the various Syrian political forces.
Kassioun Editorial, Issue No. 948, January 13, 2020.