The Emirati Sneak-In and the Enthusiasm of the American Commentator!

Naturally, this is not strange. It is known that this meeting is the result of long-term work by the Astana tripartite, and a step on a path leading to not only meetings at the foreign ministry and presidency levels between Turkey and Syria, but will also be followed by laying the real foundation for starting the implementation of the political solution according to UNSC Resolution 2254 in its entirety. Not to mention that the Syrian-Turkish settlement will undermine one of the most important American tools of sabotage and extortion, by which we mean the blockade and sanctions.

This is all normal and understandable. However, what seems suspicious and questionable is that after the UAE foreign minister’s visit to Syria a few days ago, a massive media and political campaign started, led by officials in Congress and the US State Department “against the UAE”. The campaign threatened the UAE with disaster, woe, and great things if the UAE “normalizes its relations with Assad”.

What’s New?

That the UAE has normalized its relations with the Syrian regime, this happened nearly three years ago. Since then, we did not hear American threats quite as intense as we are hearing now directed at the UAE regarding this normalization process. As a reminder, this normalization process has not only included mutual reopening of embassies, but also mutual visits at the highest levels. The last visit by the Emirate foreign minister is not an exceptional event in a clear, open, and old path. That is, understanding the American campaign requires changing and deepening the viewing angle, and putting it within the general context of changes relating to Syria and the region.

First, one must ask: what is the purpose of Emirate normalization with Syria, not today, but over at least the last three years?

Kassioun has responded many times to this question, and the answer is briefly: while the US and with it “Israel” are pressuring from one side, UAE’s job within this team is to be the undeclared carrier of deal offers from the American and “Israeli” side. All of this under the general slogan of “step for step”, which is unrelated to implementing UNSC Resolution 2254 or ending Syrians’ suffering, or even restoring Syria’s geopolitical unity. This is related to American-“Israeli” work to make the de facto division into a permanent one, to work with anyone willing to cooperate to bring down the role of the Astana tripartite, to perpetuate and prolong the “quagmire”, and to give the extremists and corruption forces on the two Syrian sides the margins, through which they can play and extort different sides, especially the Astana guarantors, and allude to being ready to jump on the Western wagon when pressured.

What about Today?

Today, the American weight in Syria is dwindling further as understanding among the Astana tripartite become deeper, and the possibilities of playing the different sides are decreasing. Therefore, we believe that the UAE is again performing an “invasion” mission assigned to it by the same usual sides.

The goal of the mission can be summarized by the following:

Intercepting the Astana tripartite in the name of “Arabs”. The format of this interception is as intermediary and supporter, and its goal at most is obstruction and sabotage as much as it could, particularly through trying to support the extremists against a Syrian-Turkish settlement by pushing them towards destructive stubbornness, perchance that sabotages the process.

The goal at a minimum, in case there is inability to sabotage the settlement and obstruct the path drawn Astana towards implementing 2254, is for the UAE to be a backdoor through which the West can improve its conditions for whatever is coming next.

To achieve either goal, it is completely understandable that thick American smoke bombs would be necessary to imply that the UAE is being disobedient and is working independently from the US and “Israel”. Therefore, there is an intensive propaganda being circulated over the last few days, implying that the UAE has turned things around with regard to Syria, as if it can do anything significant, while its true weight is no more than a feather in the Syrian conflict, and its true weight comes from the intermediation it has been working on for year and from those behind that intermediation.

How Will the Astana Tripartite Deal with this Sneaking-in?

It is not difficult for the Astana tripartite to understand the real role that the UAE is trying to play. Nevertheless, they will not break completely with this role and will not decisively stand in its way, not because it might lead to some sort of an understanding on Syria with the West, as some might think, but because the common conviction today among Russia, Iran, and Turkey is that the West does not want an understanding, not in Syria, nor in any other part of the world and it has no interest in any understanding. Anyone who is seeking or waiting for an understanding with the West, has the same destiny awaiting as those who waited implementation of the Minsk Agreements for eight years, while the US and Europeans were preparing to turn against the Agreements and pushing for war.

The implied logic of the Astana tripartite in dealing with the Emirate sneak-in is by turning a blind eye to it, and possible welcoming it, as long as it does not achieve anything or pose any real threat.

This is on the one hand, and on the other, the Astana tripartite is certain that successfully and completely excluding the US from the Syria file requires several things:

• Reaching a deep understanding among the Astana tripartite about all the main issues relating to Syria.
• Moving along with the Syrian-Turkish settlement to the minimum level needed to break the Western sanctions and blockade, and to lay the legal and political foundation for the process of restoring Syria’s geographic unity later.
• Ensuring a role for China in particular, and perhaps India as well, in the background, until such time the stage of reconstruction is reached.
• Ensuring the agreement (or at least no objection) of the main Arab states; here we are mainly talking about Saudi Arabia and Egypt.

In this sense, it is possible to take advantage of the Emirati sneak-in and turn it against those pushing for it, by turning it into an additional entry point to achieve the complete encirclement required through the aforementioned four elements.

Two Additional Factors

In addition to all the above, there are two major factors in understanding matters that should not be ignored:

The first factor: Nearly all countries, and in response to actual changes in the international balance of power, are looking for mechanisms to reposition themselves in a way that is commensurate with the new world, whose features are becoming clearer. The UAE itself, despite its well-known historical role and position, including through the infamous normalization agreements, continues to deepen its relations with China and Russia, and has even begun to settle its relations with Turkey and open the door towards settling its relations later with Iran. This means that the current uneasy positioning of the UAE, and despite the clarity of its immediate purposes, it can be contained and diverted to another side with time.

The second factor: The ability of Westerners and Americans to sabotage, and to work against the Astana tripartite, and against the path towards implementing 2254 cannot be underestimated at all. Therefore, the gradual containment of Western roles, and the implicit use of the UAE, if necessary, is a must to overcome the multiple obstacles that will inevitably arise and form on the way towards implementing 2254 and towards ending the state of devastation in the entirety of our region.

(النسخة العربية)