Higher Escalation for Faster Withdrawal!
The US escalation in the region is entering a new phase with the assassination of General Qasem Soleimani and his companions last Friday. Despite everything that is said about the man, what his enemies, before his allies, do not deny is the fact of his important role in combating terrorism in the region, from Al Qaeda to ISIS. Nor do they deny his standing in the anti-American and anti-Zionist ranks of the various regional fields.
But, as the Iranians themselves have stated, the operation of assassination “has no value in the military sense”, but its primary value is political in nature, and it relates to many intertwined files, including what is internal to the United States, what relates to Iran and the region in general and relates to Iraq in particular.
The nature of the American internal conflict, in the end, reflects a deep struggle between two strategic trends, each of which sees a different future for the American role in the world; one of the two trends is working on a rapid retreat of USA in the framework of adapting to the new international balance of power, and to prepare the American interior for the next set of the looming inevitable economic crises. Trump is represented this trend to a far extent. The second trend seeks to maintain the state of attrition and war around the world, and refuses to retreat inward at any cost, because it sees its fate attached to the sovereignty of the dollar, which cannot be preserved without total chaos. Despite the clear division between the American trends, what unites them is the currently ongoing process of the historic decline of the United States of America in terms of its weight and global role.
This assassination, although in terms of form is an escalation to an unprecedented degree, but it is for this very same reason, that is, because it is a break of the balances of the escalation game in place over the past years, it will constitute a thick smoke screen to cover the American withdrawal process which may include not only Iraq, but also many other sites within the region, including Syria, of course.
Trump is working to reap electoral profits under this smokescreen, similar to his celebrations of killing Al-Baghdadi (regardless of whether or not it is true). But what is more important is that he will use this smokescreen to cover the withdrawal process that is looming near.
At the regional level, among the goals of this assassination is breaking a link between forces and currents having in common anti-Americanism and fighting terrorism, despite their differences on almost all other files, in order to result in division and weakness among them in terms of their overall anti-American role.
Among the targets as well, creating confusion in the ranks of the popular movement in Iraq, which rebelled against the traditional and sectarian forces, and attempting to divide them by returning part of them to the hands of traditional leaders.
The clear conclusion, for anyone who has some insight, is that with this assassination the American escalation culminated, and USA can no more go to a higher escalation than this. Starting from this climax we will see a new phase of decline and inward retrogression of USA like a snowball rolling down... In the same context, we will witness implementation of political solutions throughout the region, and on top of them the political solution in Syria through the UNSCR 2254!
Kassioun Editorial, Issue No. 947, January 6, 2020.