Turkey Has No Half-Way Compromise!
Turkey's contradictory behavior – contradictory between the Syrian northeast dossier and the Idlib dossier; in each one of them; and also, between acts and statements, draws a painting of confusion and hesitation that has placed Turkey in an unenviable position, until it appears as someone who is trying to please everyone. Ultimately, nor is he gaining himself and even his interests!
Exploring the immediate causes of this confusion is not a difficult task, and can be interpreted in a simple way as a Turkish attempt to extract as much as it sees it belonging to its own interests, from the international field of conflict within Syria. But to stop at this point is only a simple description of what is happening, that does not allow the expectation of the outcome, and therefore does not allow the construction of attitudes and policies.
At the heart of Turkish confusion are three fundamental factors, which play a crucial role in guiding Turkish behavior and its outcome:
First, the confusion reflects the remnants of Turkey's long historical position within the Western camp, from which it has not emerged definitively at the moment, but at the same time has made important strides away from it, and in a large number of issues, not only in Syria, but at the level of the entire region, and the level of political and economic relations. However, the process of disengagement from the retreating west is not a simple process that can go smoothly and without unavoidable vibrations. Turkish behavior to this day, still seems to dream of a smooth disintegration with «zero problems».
Second, among the effects of the long Turkish alignment within the US camp, the strength of pro-Washington forces inside Turkey is not an issue that can be easily leapfrogged, but needs serious will that does not appear to be sufficiently available to date. This factor is reinforced by the magnitude of the various internal problems, especially the socio-economic ones.
Third: If there is no doubt that the general trend of international development is clear for Turkey itself, and appears in its positions on strategic issues (related to weapons, economy, trade lines and energy lines) more than in the immediate issues and direct behavior within them (as in Idlib, Northeast and others), This alone is no longer sufficient; the correct political positions are not only correct in their general direction, but also in the timing and timelines of their implementation. In light of the huge acceleration in the international imbalance against the US interest in the West, Turkey no longer has the luxury of half-solutions between the rising and descending poles, but the current confusion is a direct expression of the failure of its attempts to stage a new international position revealed by its strategic positions, which is clearly lined within the (Belt and Road).
In other words, the rapid manifestation of the new international balance at various levels places Turkey at a sharp crossroads; either to decisively align itself with a complete and clear bias toward the ranks of the advancing forces, or to continue its hesitation and confusion, dooming itself, in opposite to what it wants, of being aligned to the ranks of the defeated and receded forces. The Turkish reluctance, if it continues to the point of putting Turkey on the side of the defeated, will undoubtedly delay the victory of the ascenders a little, but only a little...
Kassioun Editorial, Issue No. 928, August 26, 2019