Northeast and the Only Scenario!
The few weeks following the US declaration of withdrawal from Syria proved the truth of what we went to and summarized in two key points:
- The withdrawal was to happen sooner or later as a result of division within the US administration, which in turn resulted from the continuous decline and deterioration of Washington on various international arenas, which is, in its turn, a result of the deep and comprehensive capitalist crisis.
- The form and timing of the withdrawal aims to make the forces of the Tri-Astana collide each other, and make troubles between the components and forces of the region so that this provides a coverage of the forced withdrawal of the United States by the means of a new plot and a new war that plays the same role played by the US presence.
After the decision of US to withdraw, and the talk about a possible Turkish operation on the east of the Euphrates, emerged several possibilities for the development of the north-east after the US withdrawal: there are those who say that a situation similar to Iraqi Kurdistan will be applied to the north of Syria in a deal encompasses the Syrian regime along with Arab regimes, in application, and the Americans behind them. Another possibility is that the Turkish may enter indirectly into the region through Arab tribes and armed factions so that "Qasad" ["Syria Democratic Forces"] are eliminated. Third possibility: talking about a buffer zone with the presence of "Peshmerga" forces, with handing some areas, especially in Raqqa, to Arab tribes supported by Turkey, and the situation of the other areas as they are, waiting for the comprehensive solution.
In addition to these scenarios, we can put several other scenarios under discussion, which are, in general, fake scenarios and have zero chance to be applied on the ground, for two main reasons:
Firstly, any scenario that does not respond to the larger common denominator between the Trio-Astana in the Syrian question, the unity and sovereignty of Syria, will have no chance of success: in a word, any US scenario will have no chance of success.
Secondly, if the circumstances of the US crisis and the circumstances of the obvious US loss in Syria, are the motive behind the declaration of withdrawal, the completion of the loss is the only thing which will push towards the real and actual implementation of the withdrawal. To achieve the end of expelling the Americans there are many means, on top of them is the deepening of understanding between the trio-Astana, and consolidating the understanding between the political and ethnic components of the Syrian people, without forgetting the existence of other means, like those which prompted the Americans to run to escape Beirut in 1983.
The only applicable scenario, which will be implemented within a very short period of time, consists of two elements:
First: The Syrian army is the only party authorized to retrieve the territories occupied by the Americans, and in a way that preserves the dignity of the people in the region.
Secondly, the integration of the Syrian political components existing in the east of the Euphrates, especially Kurdish ones, into the political process in its various details, a real integration that paves the way for solving that part of the Kurdish issue which is related to Syria through a fair solution acceptable to the Syrian Kurds and the Syrian people in general.
The facts of the US decline in the whole world are now very clear to be seen, even to those who avoid direct looking at it. This will appear in Idlib, in which the face of Al-Nusra Front has been openly unveiled (toward its former allies), and this will appear very soon... and the Syrian north-east, in its turn, will not retard so long behind Idleb.
Kassioun Editorial, Issue No 895, January 07, 2018.